The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
The Latest on the Long Lost Fed
21 minutes Posted Apr 24, 2026 at 7:21 pm.
Fed Returns to Spotlight
Powell Replacement Timeline
DOJ Probe and Senate Standoff
Investigation Dropped Breakthrough
Markets Reprice Rate Cuts
Forward Guidance and New Chair Uncertainty
Warsh Case for Cutting Rates
Balance Sheet Over Fed Funds
QE Exit and Fiscal Discipline
Market Credibility and Reform Hopes
Wrap Up and Next Week Preview
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4w7lcrl
The episode focuses on the Federal Reserve as Jerome Powell’s chair term approaches its May 15, 2026 end and President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, nears confirmation. The main hurdle had been a DOJ criminal investigation into alleged cost overruns at the Fed building renovation, which Senator Thom Tillis and other Republicans cited as grounds to pause Walsh’s nomination; the attorney general later dropped the criminal probe and referred the matter to the Fed inspector general, clearing the way for Senate Banking Committee action and a full Senate vote. Prediction markets and fed funds futures quickly repriced, with the probability of no rate cuts this year falling to about 62% and a meaningful chance of one cut remaining. David expects Warsh to argue oil is a supply shock outside monetary inflation, prioritize labor-market risks, and pair any rate cuts with tighter balance-sheet policy and reduced QE to improve price discovery and long-run market credibility.
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