The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Monday - April 20, 2026
14 minutes Posted Apr 20, 2026 at 9:33 pm.
Monday Setup
War News Whiplash
Market Recap
Earnings Season
Private Credit Signals
Breadth And Small Caps
Senate Odds Breakdown
Policy And Macro Watchlist
Energy And LNG Focus
Wrap Up And Next Steps
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14:17
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Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tWfYfM
From Newport Beach after returning from New York, David explains how rapid news flow from the Iran war has repeatedly made weekend research obsolete, citing futures swinging from down ~500 points to a nearly flat Dow close (-0.01%) amid conflicting reports on the Strait reopening, peace talks, and ceasefire timing. Oil fell sharply last week (~13–14%) then rebounded ~5.8% Monday to near $89; an Iranian ship was seized and shipping disruptions continue, with air cargo rates up 40%. Markets were modestly lower in S&P/Nasdaq, the 10-year yield held just above 4.25%, materials led, and communication services lagged. Q1 bank earnings started strong overall; attention shifts to broader earnings and LNG-exposed midstream guidance. Private-credit LMEs have declined over nine months, breadth improved, and small caps remain ~9.6% ahead of big caps YTD. Politically, Senate control odds have tightened to roughly 50/50, but flipping enough seats is still difficult; prospects for a new House reconciliation bill look low. Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh hearings are expected this week, pending a DOJ/Powell-related issue.
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