The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Private Credit Contagion Risk and All the Lies
15 minutes Posted Mar 20, 2026 at 3:52 pm.
Welcome and Market Volatility
Why Not Iran Again
Private Credit Enters Spotlight
Defaults vs Liquidity Confusion
What the Facts Show
AI Software Loan Hype
Five Key Takeaways
Systemic Risk Myth
Alignment Matters Most
Chatter vs Reality
Chart and Final Thoughts
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15:06
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Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47xUXzF
David Bahnsen hosts this week’s Dividend Cafe, briefly noting ongoing Iran-related market volatility but avoiding a third straight week of geopolitical speculation, criticizing market pundits for pseudo-military commentary. He instead addresses private credit, arguing mainstream narratives wrongly conflate liquidity/redemption features with claims of current, broad credit distress. He says reported loan issues are being overstated, noting a $600 million sale from a multi-billion-dollar portfolio cleared at 99.7% of par, and that future defaults—if they rise—won’t be monolithic and require manager-, collateral-, and portfolio-level nuance. He outlines five points: avoid simplistic AI/software assumptions; recent loan sales were near par; losses fall on investors, not banks, making risk non-systemic; a washout of weak managers can strengthen capital allocation; and investors should distinguish good vs bad and aligned vs non-aligned managers. He adds software loan yields rose while total loan yields are lower than a year to 18 months ago.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com