The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Year Behind, Year Ahead – Special 2026 White Paper – January 9, 2026
1 hour 1 minutes Posted Jan 9, 2026 at 12:55 pm.
Introduction and Annual Review Overview
Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes
Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025
Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts
Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns
Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis
Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes
China Relations: A Bold Prediction
Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag
Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme
Corporate Activity: A Record Year
Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View
Quantitative Tightening Ends
2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities
Economic Tug of War
Midterm Elections and Market Impact
Housing Market Predictions
Small Cap vs. S&P 500
Foreign Appetite for US Assets
Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity
Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook
Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism
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Show notes
Today's Post -
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year.
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TheBahnsenGroup.com