Ten Minutes On...

Is the Russia-Ukraine war a proxy war? What can data from other proxy conflicts (most of them civil wars, admittedly) tell us about the relationship between proxies and external sponsors and the eventual outcomes of those wars? Guy Burton looks at some of the data that's been provided by the Uppsala Conflict Development Program and analysed by others to get an indication on where the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might be headed and what this will mean for both Kyiv and its Western backers.

In the past week a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has broken down and Israel is following through on its long-planned offensive into Rafah. These developments have caused jitters among Israel's friends in the West. Yet even though it's unlikely the US and others will abandon Israel just yet, there are factors which may give them pause for thought, from the lack of any substantial alternative in poliy terms from Israel's political leaders beyond Benjamin Netanyahu to the growing disconnect between Israeli and Western societies regarding the appropriateness of Israel's actions in the war since October 7.

Following the passing of the UK Government's Rwanda scheme last week, Guy takes a broader look at migration, and irregular migration in particular. He looks at the figures in the UK and globally and summarises the main reasons for migration and the policy options available to governments to respond to migration. These include more puntive ones along more reward-oriented ones. Guy then looks at the EU's New Pact on Migration and Asylum and its objectives and the extent to which the British approach and its Rwanda scheme falls short.

With more than 14,000 killed, more than half the population needing humanitarian assistance and 8 million people displaced so far, Sudan has become the world's "forgotten war". As the first anniversary of the war's outbreak passes, Guy Burton looks at why the war matters, what caused the fighting to start, who is involved and what the prospects are for an eventual ceasefire.

What's going on between Israel and Iran? On Saturday Iran launched a massive missile and drone strike against Israel. Almost none of them got through the assorted air defences. But what prompted Iran to do this and what was the wider context in which this happened? What are Israel's options and why are they flawed? In slightly more than 10 minutes (!), Guy Burton highlights the risks associated with Israeli retaliation as well as the failure to consider more moral and humane responses to the growing crisis in the Middle East region.

What is Ten Minutes On...? I'm Guy Burton, a scholar, writer and occasional media commentator who is venturing into a new podcast where we delve into emerging or developing stories and events and try to bring some broader context and analysis in order to understand what's going on. Ten Minutes On... is designed to provide a short and concise look at political and world events and will be out once a week or more regularly - depending how much interest there is! Do feel free to get in touch, via my social media accounts:Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/guyjsburtonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guyjsburton/Website: https://www.guyburton.net/