Show notes
Support the Show: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsxwneBx6apV1mQ7CbWKfXQ/joinRobert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. In this episode, Robert and Robinson discuss why the Iran war has become an escalation trap for Donald Trump, the United States, and Israel. More particularly, they talk about Pape’s argument that the war has strengthened Iran while weakening America’s regional position, Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and how cheap drones and precision weapons are changing the balance of military power. They also discuss how the 2026 midterms could prolong escalation, the limits of predicting war, how AI could make political assassinations easier, and the risks of weapons operating without human oversight. Robert’s latest book is Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism (The New Press, 2026).Robert’s Substack (Prof Robert Pape): https://professorrobertpape.substack.com/Robert’s Substack (Escalation Trap): https://escalationtrap.substack.com/Robert’s YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ProfRobertPapeOur Own Worst Enemies: https://thenewpress.org/books/our-own-worst-enemies/OUTLINE00:00 Introduction00:45 Why the Iran War Is Nowhere Near Over08:08 How Iran Can Defy a Superpower15:22 How Cheap Drones Changed the Balance of Power20:31 Is America Building Weapons for the Wrong War?29:00 Why War Experts Must Risk Being Wrong40:25 Has Pape Been Wrong About Iran?45:33 How Time Shifts the Balance of Power51:23 Why the 2026 Midterms May Prolong the Iran War55:16 How a Leader’s Health Can Change a War1:01:40 How Assassinations and Elections Can Upend the World1:05:28 Is AI Making Iran’s Attacks More Deadly?1:07:38 Could AI Make Assassinations Easier?1:13:36 Could Hezbollah Shut Down Israel’s Ports?1:18:25 When Weapons Act Without Human ControlRobinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.