The white-hot stock market in the first half of this year, wage gains, a tight labor market, rising home prices— as well as falling inflation data—have contributed to a widespread view among many analysts that the US economy has avoided a major recession. A soft landing, if any, is now a popular narrative. But DICK BOVE is filled with conviction that our latest gains on the economy and inflation could soon be reversed. With wages rising faster than inflation, more people entering the workforce and the wealth effect of sharply higher asset prices from stocks to housing, the Fed may soon be back at the drawing board, he says. That's because of a return of a higher pace of inflation from inflation's recent low of 3 percent. In this scenario, the Fed would extend its interest rate campaign far longer than many have anticipated. "We're looking at an inflationary spiral, " says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "I think the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. I don't think the conventional view is correct."
Meanwhile, regulators' efforts to supervise the troubled US banking sector could backfire. An acceleration in bank consolidations and hightened risks for the sector is predicted by BOVE. On the global front, the Conversation will look at the prospects for expanding investment opportunities in the African continuent bouyed by favorable demographics. China, meanwhile, is facing a plunging population more severe than officially reported, according to one analyst. Joining the Conversation is JOHN AIDAN BYRNE who poses the question: Is the current blistering streak for the stock market a symptom of an asset bubble that will burst?
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