The Conversation takes another close look behind this month's labor numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. DICK BOVE lays out the mammoth task undertaken by skilled government professionals in compiling and analyzing a complex data set for the US population. As noted in the last episode, the latest numbers offer a conflicting account of the labor force when compared with a separate survey of US households. BOVE notes an uptrend in jobless claims as well as a decline in the number of hours worked per week. The real key is a reliable and consistent set of data that does not have components that can be "fudged" by statisticians, says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Based on his reading of labor market and other data, BOVE expects a recession "of some meaningful magnitude" in the coming months.  

This is another topic-packed Conversation. From the prospects of the next interest rate increase as the Fed keeps the pedal to the mettle to tame inflation, to a potential funding disaster for the home mortgage sector, the Conversation offers some fresh perspective. BOVE says the US is headed for a real crisis in mortgage finance as the Fed steps back from supporting the mortgage sector with its past rounds of massive purchases of securities. At the same time, Wells Fargo and other banks are scaling back in home finance. The Conversation also turns philosophical on the existential problems of our time with JOHN AIDAN BYRNE arguing that our democracies and our autocracies are both battling their own internal crisis, and BOVE lamenting the lack of an ideology that could propel humanity to greater heights.

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