Show notes
Netflix says ads are booming—but are viewers actually watching more? Kate Scott-Dawkins and Jeff Foster dig into Netflix’s latest earnings: ~$3B in projected ad revenue for 2026, 325M paid memberships, and a surprisingly modest lift in hours watched. We unpack what that gap could mean for advertisers, why big IP (including Warner Bros. Discovery/WBD) suddenly looks even more valuable, and where Netflix may go next on content and sports.Plus: what P&G’s results suggest about a more disciplined year for CPG ad spend, the latest on TikTok’s new U.S. ownership structure (and the still-open questions around the algorithm), and OpenAI/ChatGPT testing ads—with an early focus on transparency and user control.We explore:Netflix’s 2026 ad revenue guidance (~$3B) and what it takes to scale a young ad business.Why 96B hours watched in 2H 2025 only grew ~2%—and the “attention per member” problem.Content strategy and competition: ~$18B implied 2026 content spend, sports optionality, and the pull of major franchise libraries (WBD).P&G earnings and why the company isn’t planning a big media ramp—what that signals for CPG budgets in 2026.TikTok’s U.S. divestment outcome: who owns what, what likely stays the same for advertisers, and how pressure is rising on social platforms globally.OpenAI begins testing ads: early guardrails, what “AI-native” advertising could look like, and why this launch matters.Chapters:00:00 – Intro: Netflix, P&G, TikTok U.S. deal, OpenAI ads00:42 – Netflix: ad revenue forecast to double to ~$3B in 202601:51 – Netflix: 325M paid memberships (first update in a year)02:20 – Engagement: 96B hours watched in 2H 2025 and what it implies04:29 – Content + sports: 2026 spend plans and rights questions07:30 – The hardware challenge: Netflix vs OS-controlled platforms08:38 – P&G: growth, pricing, category performance, and ad spend tone12:32 – TikTok: new U.S. ownership structure and open algorithm questions16:12 – Social pressure: under-16 bans, lawsuits, and brand risk20:29 – OpenAI/ChatGPT: testing ads, transparency, and what’s next25:27 – Weekend recommendations: AI reads/listens28:41 – Next week preview: key earnings to watch29:00 – Closing + contact