Live With The Maverick
Live With The Maverick
Dominic Lee
Episode 100: Actuaries in Research - Part 2 (Part 2)
55 minutes Posted Oct 24, 2024 at 8:37 pm.
: Random walk hypothesis and modern financial economics. 2:49: Unit-linked life insurance policies and connection to share price uncertainty. 6:30: Foundations of the first Wilkie Model (retail prices, dividends, dividend yields, and long-term interest rates). 8:40: Limitations of Black-Scholes option pricing model assumptions (share price, transactions costs, and hedging constraints).13:25: The key innovation for the first Wilkie Model (incorporating stochastic framework, variability, variable interrelations, and autoregressive methods). 16:30: The second Wilkie Model (short-term interest rates, property, property yields, and foreign exchange rates).19:05: Index-linked yields and modifying long-term interest rate assumptions. 22:02: Incorporating company earnings and payout ratios (dividend payout and price/earnings) into Wilkie Model. 23:56: Realistic disaster scenarios, evaluating extreme losses for oil industry, and Lloyd’s syndicate as-if reserves. 30:16: Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Wilkie Model (hyper model approach). 32:51: Using fatter tail distributions (Normal, hyperbolic, and Laplace) for variables with extreme values and high kurtosis.38:06: Transparency challenges around economic scenario generation. 39:03: Packaging of mortgages leading up to 2008 financial crisis and resulting implications. 42:32: Misaligned incentives in corporate taxation (interest payment deductions).   46:33: Involvement with actuarial and scientific organizations. 50:30: Approved directive for life insurance valuation principles to address country-level disconnects.52:26: Research that David hasn’t done yet but intends to do. If you are an actuary interested in research, modeling, and programming, you want to listen to this.My Website: maverickactuary.com
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My guest for Episode 100 is David Wilkie, CBE, FFA, FIA, FSS, FIMA, Hon D Sc, Hon D Math, Chairman at InQA Limited. The theme for the episode is 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 - 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮.David and I covered the following topics in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 of this historic episode:⁣✅ Modeling uncertainty within insurance, finance, and risk mgmt✅ Shortcomings of the Black-Scholes option pricing model✅ The origins and evolution of the Wilkie Model for economic variables✅ Realistic disaster scenarios for marine insurance ✅ The financial crisis, agency risk, and model hazard ✅ Helping to shape actuarial standards and practice globally ✅ David’s new unreleased research paper 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟮 Time Markers1:25: Random walk hypothesis and modern financial economics. 2:49: Unit-linked life insurance policies and connection to share price uncertainty. 6:30: Foundations of the first Wilkie Model (retail prices, dividends, dividend yields, and long-term interest rates). 8:40: Limitations of Black-Scholes option pricing model assumptions (share price, transactions costs, and hedging constraints).13:25: The key innovation for the first Wilkie Model (incorporating stochastic framework, variability, variable interrelations, and autoregressive methods). 16:30: The second Wilkie Model (short-term interest rates, property, property yields, and foreign exchange rates).19:05: Index-linked yields and modifying long-term interest rate assumptions. 22:02: Incorporating company earnings and payout ratios (dividend payout and price/earnings) into Wilkie Model. 23:56: Realistic disaster scenarios, evaluating extreme losses for oil industry, and Lloyd’s syndicate as-if reserves. 30:16: Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Wilkie Model (hyper model approach). 32:51: Using fatter tail distributions (Normal, hyperbolic, and Laplace) for variables with extreme values and high kurtosis.38:06: Transparency challenges around economic scenario generation. 39:03: Packaging of mortgages leading up to 2008 financial crisis and resulting implications. 42:32: Misaligned incentives in corporate taxation (interest payment deductions).   46:33: Involvement with actuarial and scientific organizations. 50:30: Approved directive for life insurance valuation principles to address country-level disconnects.52:26: Research that David hasn’t done yet but intends to do. If you are an actuary interested in research, modeling, and programming, you want to listen to this.My Website: maverickactuary.com