<ul><li>Forecasting resources<ul><li>Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718">amazon</a> <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting">goodreads</a>)</li><li>The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (book) by Nate Silver (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087">amazon</a> <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise">goodreads</a>)</li><li>How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (book) by Douglas Hubbard (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Douglas-W-Hubbard/dp/1118539273/">amazon</a> <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/444653.How_to_Measure_Anything">goodreads</a>)</li><li><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy">Planning Fallacy</a> (article) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Discusses Inside/Outside view as well.</li></ul></li><li>Self calibration<ul><li><a href="https://predictionbook.com/">Prediction Book</a></li><li><a href="https://airtable.com/invite/l?inviteId=invxkuj7RwVrQnCb7&amp;inviteToken=089f5c7719eb16f11bf7bf16202fbba5aca16fd33c678f5648c6a074ca9b510c">AirTable calibration template</a> by Ben Pence</li><li><a href="https://www.notion.so/796de702a44c4f189cb99e3a58652647">Notion.so calibration template</a> by Ben Pence</li><li><a href="https://acritch.com/credence-game/">Credence Calibration Game</a> by Alexei Andreev, Zachary Alethia, and Andrew Critch</li><li><a href="https://fs.blog/2014/02/decision-journal/">Decision Journal</a> (more qualitative)</li></ul></li><li>Prediction Markets<ul><li><a href="https://augur.net/">Augur</a></li><li><a href="https://www.predictit.org/">PredictIt</a></li><li><a href="https://intrade.com/">InTrade</a> (inactive)</li><li><a href="https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets">Prediction Markets</a> (article) by Gwern</li></ul></li><li>Music<ul><li>Intro music: <a href="https://soundcloud.com/oliwia-or-owska-247852559/free-vlog-music-cafe-type-hip">Vlog Music Cafe Type Hip-Hop Instrumental Chill Lo-Fi Beat by Oliwia Orłowska</a></li><li>Outro music: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYUDWXPu0QU">Game Over [Super Mario World Lofi/hiphop remix] by Neighborhood Vandal</a></li></ul></li><li>Transcript available at <a href="https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting">https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting</a></li></ul>

Personal Knowledge Management (PKM)

Do you try to be a smarter and more skillful person every day? Did you ever learn something new and feel like there's a there there? Have you ever overheard the cool kids talking about safe withdrawal rates, confidence intervals, personal knowledge management and thought to yourself that they sounded quite crazy but also been quite intrigued?

Well hello! This is the Growth Podcast. Join Ben and Brendon as we talk about concepts, tools, and techniques to increase your productivity and help you achieve your goals.