Ian Harnett is a co-founder and chief investment strategist of Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) one of only a handful of highly regarded independent global macro research firms. In this conversation with Alison Savas, Ian discusses why he believes the west has a "vanishingly small" chance of avoiding recession, but explains how a new source of liquidity in global markets could be a game changer.He also shares his views on stock market valuations and one big risk factor he believes most are overlooking. Key times:Can the US & the West sidestep recession? The critical data points ASR is monitoring closely Can the Fed restore balance in the labour market? Non-bank financials & the liquidity crunch: Outlook for non-residential investment and fiscal deficits: Why US equities are overvalued: Valuations of European and Chinese equities: Can China keep growing? The big risk investors are overlooking in today’s market: