Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
Geopolitics Decanted with Dmitri Alperovitch
Silverado Policy Accelerator
Why The China Trade Truce Is Unlikely to Last
23 minutes Posted Oct 31, 2025 at 4:00 am.
Introduction
US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting
The Rare Earths Truce
A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal
China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments
Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year
Deals With the Rest of the World
Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal
No Concessions on AI Chips Export
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Show notes
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sarah Stewart, CEO at Silverado and former senior US trade negotiator, about the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. They discuss the details of the agreement reached and why it is a temporary trade truce at best.
00:00 Introduction
01:13 US Objectives for the Trump-Xi Meeting
08:43 The Rare Earths Truce
11:29 A Temporary Truce, Not a Deal
12:31 China's Historical Record of Delivering on Their Commitments
16:11 Why This Truce Is Unlikely to Last a Year
17:39 Deals With the Rest of the World
18:45 Strategic Implications of the Malaysia Trade Deal
20:27 No Concessions on AI Chips Export