Future Projection
Future Projection
Baseball America
Episode 169: Mailbag—How To Know When A Prospect Change Is Real
39 minutes Posted Mar 10, 2026 at 9:00 am.
Ben and Carlos answer listener questions about how we know when to re-adjust expectations for prospects and the difference in value between center fielders and shortstops.—Time Stamps:
How do you know if a player is hitting a high percentile outcome vs. adjusting possible expectations?
Why it’s hard to deal with specific percentile projections
Why approach changes are incremental
Being skeptical of surface level results with no process changes
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Show notes
Ben and Carlos answer listener questions about how we know when to re-adjust expectations for prospects and the difference in value between center fielders and shortstops.—Time Stamps:(3:00) How do you know if a player is hitting a high percentile outcome vs. adjusting possible expectations?(8:00) Why it’s hard to deal with specific percentile projections(16:00) Why approach changes are incremental(18:00) Being skeptical of surface level results with no process changes(25:00) How much more do teams value shortstops vs. center fielders?Do you have feedback for the show or want to ask us a  question? Email us: [email protected] Projection Twitter: @FutureProPodBen's Twitter: @BenBadlerCarlos's Newsletter: Fringe AverageBaseball America WebsiteAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy