Show notes
Robin Hanson is a leading research of prediction markets, a professor of economics at George Mason University, author of the Elephant in the Brain and the Age of Em, and the writer of the blog Overcoming Bias.The audio essay of this show discusses the nature and enemies of “common sense” economic progress, as well as the cost-benefit analysis of going after said enemies. The topics discussed include prediction markets, market manipulation, game theory, global conformity, the timeline and strength of “wokeness”, innovation, internal selection, self-deception, hidden motives, and opportunities for young innovators.Robin Hanson’s website:https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.htmlhttps://twitter.com/robinhansonOpening Twitter poll:The Elephant in the Brain:https://www.amazon.ca/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995The Age of Em:https://www.amazon.ca/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/1536619590Pew Research Pollhttps://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/Timestamps:2:27 Audio essay9:43 Interview Starts15:55 How People (Don't) Prioritize22:47 Academia vs. Industry Science24:39 Prediction Markets31:27 Manipulating the Market49:14 Working with DARPA55:01 Polymarket Ban58:00 Regulatory Environment of Futures1:06:03 Why Aren't Prediction Markets More Popular?1:15:02 Self-Deception1:29:24 Why People Have Conversations1:33:33 Institutions1:41:19 Why Do Institutions Rot?1:44:57 Midwits and the Bozo Explosion1:47:57 The World Mob2:01:38 Global Homogenization2:04:24 The Threat of Populism vs. Elitism2:13:32 The Peak of Wokeness2:18:51 Creating Competition2:23:52 Young Contrarians2:27:23 Outro This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe
