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FreightWaves
Flexport Volumes Surge 40%, Freight Cycles Defy Forecasting, & Covenant Eyes Double-Digit Hikes | The Morning Minute
3 minutes Posted Nov 2, 2026 at 3:35 pm.
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In this episode, we kick things off by examining how artificial intelligence is dramatically reshaping freight forwarding economics. Listen in to learn how ⁠Flexport's freight volumes surged 40% while headcount grew only 5%⁠, driven by AI tools deployed across customs, routing, and engineering. The company's ocean peak started early this year, fueled partly by massive tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling, while data center cargo now accounts for around 8% of global air freight capacity and is projected to triple next year.
Next, we explore a sobering look at freight market history that reveals why ⁠each freight cycle over the past 25 years has differed dramatically from the last⁠, making it nearly impossible to forecast when cycles begin and end. The post-Great Recession period set many expectations of what "normal" looks like, but COVID was the freight market's second black-swan event in just three years. Remarkably, rates were up 10% in September while volumes rose only 2%, which is hard to reconcile with weak demand.
Finally, we cover a major truckload carrier's aggressive forecast as ⁠Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker expects double-digit contract rate hikes in 2027⁠, driven by rising operating expenses, tightening driver capacity, and continued federal safety enforcement. Shippers resetting contracts in recent months are paying about 12.8% more than the rates they replaced, up from 4.1% during the same period last year. Parker also predicts regulators will eventually require third-party ELD certification, noting that 30% of trucks may be operating with manipulated hours-of-service records.
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