Fire Science Show
Fire Science Show
Wojciech Wegrzynski
228 - Quantifying the expected utility of fire tests with Andrea Franchini
53 minutes Posted Nov 26, 2025 at 9:00 am.
Setting The Mission: Better Fire Tests
The ATES Project And Big Picture
Expected Utility Versus Traditional Testing
Bayesian Updating: Priors To Posteriors
Modeling Experiments Before They Happen
Cone Calorimeter Case: Ignition Time
Information Gain And Diminishing Returns
Expanding Design Parameters And Complexity
Outliers, Likelihoods, And Data Quality
Utility Defined: Uncertainty, Cost, Environment
Post‑Fire Assessment: Concrete Slab Decision
Linking Tests To Eurocode Models
Value Of Information And Economic Payoff
Case Result: Rebound Hammer Beats Discoloration
Generality, Assumptions, And Cost Models
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What do you expect from running a fire test? I would hope that it improves my state of knowledge. But do they do this? We often pursue them blindly, but it seems there is a way to do this in an informed way. In this episode we explore a rigorous, practical way to select and design experiments by asking a sharper question: which test delivers the most decision-changing information for the least cost, time, and impact. With Dr. Andrea Franchini of Ghent University, we unpack a Bayesian fr...