Emerging Litigation Podcast
Emerging Litigation Podcast
Tom Hagy
Prediction Markets: Predicting the Legal and Policy Possibilities
17 minutes Posted Apr 5, 2026 at 3:00 pm.
Welcome And Why Prediction Markets Matter
A Dark Anecdote About Death Pools
How Event Contracts Actually Work
Why Some Markets Feel Unacceptable
The F-15 Rescue Bet Backlash
What Regulators And Scholars Warn
Federal Preemption Fight With States
Congress Moves To Limit Contracts
Insider Trading And Manipulation Risks
Civil Lawsuits Platforms Might Face
Public Interest Limits And Red Lines
What To Watch In Courts Next
About The Show And Contact
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Show notes
This episode breaks down how prediction markets are colliding with U.S. law as event‑based trading moves from niche forecasting tools to mainstream platforms handling billions in volume. I explain what prediction markets are, why regulators are increasingly alarmed, and how an escalating federal–state fight (plus new legislative and enforcement pressure) is setting up the next wave of high‑stakes litigation. Key Topics Covered: How prediction markets work: event contracts, probabi...