CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

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We’ve talked about Shohei Ohtani and what the Dodgers are doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs aren’t doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs might look like if they actually do nothing. Here we are, stuck in Groundhog Day, waiting for news of the first big move. Why is the baseball offseason the way it is? Why don’t things move faster? This week I dig into those questions. Find CubsPS+ on the Bleacher Bunch Network: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleacher-bunch-network-a-chicago-cubs-podcast/id1462808218

A week after Shohei Ohtani came off the board, the Cubs still have not made a single major league transaction this offseason. A lot of rumored and potential paths to a successful offseason remain available, but in this episode, I dig into the current roster and what this season could look like if the Cubs do nothing. How many wins could this team win? How might they replace lost production from 2023?

It’s been a wild week of fake reports, erroneous reports made in good faith and a whole lot of rumors as the world waited for Shohei to sign. Now he’s made up his mind and will be staying in LA. I talk about his contract and the what deferred money means in terms of luxury tax hit and then get into the “so what?” Of it all. What does this mean for the Cubs? Where do they pivot next. Let’s dive in. UPDATE: Jon Becker corrected the calculations he had put out yesterday before I recorded. I have provided the updated link below. Nutshell - deferring $400M of Ohtani’s contract would take LA’s CBT hit to as low as $42-ish million per year, not the $60M per year I cited in the pod.  Excellent Twitter thread about deferred comp in MLB from @jonbecker_ https://x.com/jonbecker_/status/1733855093462630748?s=61&t=1Aka_sJo8QXHplWFFqMVAg Great read on Collective Bargaining Tax (CBT) optimization (including explanation on deferred money) by @DrummeyDylan at Pitcher List https://t.co/r0wrSwMBoZ

It’s hot stove time, but the fire is just getting started, so it’s still a little chilly in here. Not much is happening yet, outside of a few moves here and there. All of the big guns are still on the board and everyone – pretty much the whole world – is waiting for Shohei Ohtani to make a decision. Do the Cubs have a shot? Could they actually land the biggest free agent in the history of baseball? Nobody knows, but it sure looks like they’re trying. Let’s see what we know about Ohtani and what other players the Cubs may be targeting. Starting January 1, this podcast will be exclusively posted to the Bleacher Bunch podcast feed and on my Patreon feed. Patreon supporters will always get episodes ad-free. https://cubspsplus.patreon.com

The Cubs have added a number of young players to the 40-man roster over the last week and today I was joined by friend of the pod, Greg Huss of Northside Bound and the Cubs on Deck podcast. We talked about the guys the Cubs added, a variety of strategies for turning prospect depth into a winning big-league club and then dove into the first year of his BASH metric, which measures offensive production across levels of the minors in a way somewhat similar to wRC+. Greg Huss can be found across social media at @OutoftheVines and @cubsondeck. His writing can be found at North Side Bound

Jed Hoyer comes in off the top rope to open the offseason with the shocking hire of former Brewers manager Craig Counsell, setting up what could be a really exciting offseason. This week I’m joined by Cody Delmendo from the CHGO Cubs podcast and we discuss the Counsell hire, how he makes the Cubs better and what this all means for the offseason.

There’s a lot to talk about today – I get into the front office moves and rumors and what those might mean for the Cubs going forward. I also talk more about the various Kyle Hendricks rumors and how those might play into the Cubs’ roster construction for 2024. Let’s also talk through some hitting numbers and what the Cubs should target on the trade and free-agent markets.

Let’s talk about pitching - the Cubs had more quality pitching this year than they’ve had in 5+ years and they’re developing pitching better than they have since the early 2000s. How do they build on that in 2024? What do they need to do this offseason? Today I break down some of the Cubs’ pitching numbers and what was missing. Factoring in who is likely to return gives an idea what the Cubs need to target. The obvious answer is velocity and swing-and-miss stuff in the rotation and certainly more in the bullpen, but let’s dig deep into velocity, K rates, barrels, etc. and look at what the numbers tell us.

The playoffs are in full swing and we’re seeing former Cubs all over the place. The Cubs missed the post-season by 2 games. It was so close and yet so far away. The Cubs are obviously working to get back to the playoffs, but before the offseason team building begins, let’s take a look at this year’s field, the new playoff structure and what it all means going foreward.