Show notes
Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble & When Bitcoin RalliesGlobal liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what's moving underneath the surface.In this episode you'll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a "liquidity sponge," how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You'll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is "basically Japan ten years later" buying gold for 23 straight months. You'll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework34:17 - Howell's Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together47:18 - Japan, The Yen Carry Trade And Weaker Yen49:30 - How Japan Devalued Its Debt Successfully51:39 - China Is Japan Ten Years Later53:07 - China Printing Money And Buying Gold To Devalue56:16 - Could The US Engineer A Domestic Devaluation?58:25 - How Bitcoin Reacts To Chinese And Treasury Liquidity1:02:04 - Final Thoughts On AI, Private Credit And RiskMichael Howell runs Global Liquidity Indexes and publishes the Capital Wars Substack, where he tracks global liquidity data and the indicators referenced throughout this conversation.🔗 Links & Resources:→ Michael Howell on X: https://x.com/crossbordercap→ Michael Howell on Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/→ GL Indexes: https://www.glindexes.com/⚡Previous Episode:Rational Root: https://youtu.be/ZkpoEFOQ_cM🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOINhttps://qrco.de/bfiDC6💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit btcmentor.io #Bitcoin #GlobalLiquidity #EverythingBubble #MichaelHowell #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinMacro #TreasuryQE #DebtCycle #CapitalWars #BondMarket #YieldCurve #LiquiditySponge #Liquidity