Physical vs futures pricing: Rising Middle East spot sales have narrowed Brent futures' discount to North Sea Dated, while producers take on more Hormuz transit and insurance risk as export flows recover.Freight and Hormuz security: Repeated shipping attacks keep freight costs very high, while Asian refiners are seeking lower Middle East term volumes to diversify supply.Diesel tightness and policy response: Diesel cracks remain near triple-digit levels and inventories are low. Policy moves are unlikely to help soon because refinery capacity is stretched and Russian flows are constrained.Macro and political fallout: Fuel prices are stoking inflation and highlighting AI boom/bust risks. The US and Israeli elections and Iran's demands for any reopening of Hormuz add further uncertainty.