808 Commercial Market Outlook

Boeing’s commercial market outlook, the AirVenture and Farnborough air shows, Airbus’ A321XLR certification, funding for FAA infrastructure, Embraer’s Eve flying taxi prototype, JetBlue’s unpaid leave offer to flight attendants, and first officers decline to upgrade to captain.

Aviation News

Boeing Forecasts Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Airplanes Through 2043 as Air Travel Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels

Boeing released its Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for 2024-2043, including an interactive dashboard.

CMO forecast highlights through 2043:

• The global commercial fleet is projected to grow 3.2% annually.
• The air cargo fleet will increase by two-thirds by 2043, to support 4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.
• The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, even though nearly 20% of them are new, illustrating the adaptability of aviation in a dynamic market.
• Single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet.
• The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising 44% of the Middle East fleet.

It’s Opening Week for Two of the World’s Largest Airshows

EAA AirVenture Oshkosh is July 22 – July 28, 2024. EAA has about 300,000 members worldwide. AirVenture sees more than 500,000 attendees over the week-long event they call The World’s Greatest Aviation Celebration®.

The Farnborough International Airshow is held every two years, alternating with the Paris Air Show. This year Farnborough is July 22 – July 26, 2024, and targets the global aerospace industry. See Farnborough Air Show 2024 – Preview from the Royal Aeronautical Society.

Airbus A321XLR Receives EASA Type Certification

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued Type Certification for the Airbus A321XLR powered by CFM LEAP-1A engines. Airbus has a backlog of over 500 single-aisle A321XLR orders. Iberia is the launch customer and EIS is expected in November 2024. Airbus also has orders from Qantas, Icelandair, and IAG Group. Certification for the Pratt & Whitney GTF variant is to come next.

Groups Push Lawmakers To Up FAA’s ATC Equipment Budget

Twenty-six industry associations sent a letter to the Appropriations Committees, the Senate Commerce Committee, and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee asking for more ATC modernization funding. The associations represent business and general aviation, airlines, air traffic controllers and specialists, pilots and flight attendants, and manufacturers.

The groups note an uncommitted balance in the Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF) that could be used for the FAA’s Facilities and Equipment (F&E) account. “We… believe more must be done to not only maintain and sustain the ATC system but also to modernize it.” The Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF), also known as the Aviation Trust Fund, was established in 1970 to help finance the FAA’s investments in the airport and airway system, independent of the General Fund.

Embraer’s Eve rolls out flying taxi prototype, cash needs covered until 2027

Embraer subsidiary Eve Air Mobility revealed their full-scale eVTOL prototype. The fixed-wing aircraft uses eight propellers for vertical flight and an electric pusher motor. The first prototype does not have a cabin or pilot. The final aircraft will seat four passengers and a pilot.

Eve was founded in 2020 and plans to obtain certification and enter service in 2026. Five conforming prototypes are planned for 2025. The company says they have letters of intent for 2,900 eVTOLs that seat four passengers and a pilot. Investors include United Airlines, BAE Systems, Thales, and Rolls-Royce.

JetBlue to Offer Six Months of Unpaid Leave to Flight Attendants, Trim Number of Crew Members On Transatlantic Flights

A Transport Workers Union of America (TWU) memo says JetBlue is taking steps to reduce costs. Flight attendants should expect “significantly reduced” flying schedules during the October to March winter season and more time sitting on reserve, although they can take unpaid leave of absence. The memo also says that JetBlue plans to reduce the number of flight attendants working on transatlantic flights from the current five to just four for “the foreseeable future”. JetBlue plans to disable the privacy doors in its Mint Business Class on some planes and thus reduce the number of flight attendants required on these planes.

Pilots are ditching top captain jobs in favor of $200,000 second-in-command gigs with better work-life balance, JetBlue founder says

JetBlue founder and founder-CEO of Breeze Airways David Neeleman says there are many pilots, but they don’t all want the workload and stress of a captain. Neeleman said, “First officer pay has gone up so much that a lot of these people don’t want to upgrade to captain because it affects their quality of life.” American’s pilots union said that in 2023, 7,000 pilots declined promotions to captain.

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