Notes on the Week Ahead
Notes on the Week Ahead
Dr. David Kelly
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
12 minutes Posted Sep 21, 2026 at 12:23 pm.
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On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-over-year inflation rates, as measured by the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator and the core consumer price index (CPI) were running at about 3.2% and 2.4% respectively.