Notes on the Week Ahead
Notes on the Week Ahead
Dr. David Kelly
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
13 minutes Posted Jun 15, 2026 at 10:56 am.
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Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflation and, if it is, how fast will inflation fall from here? Second, are we looking at the right inflation rate, anyway, given differences between CPI and PCE deflators, headline and core measures and the new Fed Chairman’s preference for trimmed mean and median readings?