Notes on the Week Ahead
Notes on the Week Ahead
Dr. David Kelly
Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?
9 minutes Posted Jul 8, 2024 at 5:25 pm.
Introduction
Defining a Recession
Traditional Recession Indicators
The SAM Rule
Factors Influencing Unemployment Rate
Root Cause of Rising Unemployment
Economic Downshift
Potential Fed Response
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Despite a slightly higher-than-expected payroll job gain, the June employment report was on the soft side, with downward revisions to payroll gains from prior months, a drop in temporary employment and only modest gains in wages.  However, the weakest aspect of the report was the unemployment rate, which edged up from 4.0% to 4.1%.  This, in itself, wouldn’t be particularly notable were it not for the fact that the unemployment rate has now risen steadily over the past 14 months from a 54-year low of 3.4% set in April of last year.