Notes on the Week Ahead
Notes on the Week Ahead
Dr. David Kelly
The Normalization of an Abnormal Job Market
9 minutes Posted Jun 3, 2024 at 5:15 pm.
Introduction to Notes on the Week Ahead
Labour Market Data and Market Implications
Second-Quarter Growth and Economic Outlook
Labor Force Participation and Immigration Impact
Decline in Year-Over-Year Wage Growth
U.S. Labor Market on a Soft Landing Path
Impact on Investors and Market Normalization
Conclusion and Next Week Preview
0:00
9:29
Download MP3
Show notes

For centuries, economists have extolled the almost magical properties of competitive markets.  In the 1770s, Adam Smith wrote about an “invisible hand” by which individuals end up promoting the common good even though they only ever intended to do themselves a bit of good.  In the 1970s, Milton Friedman spoke passionately of the virtues of a free-enterprise system in boosting innovation and productive activity.  Such voices are quieter now and much of modern economic commentary is devoted to how to fix an economy when markets fail or how governments and central banks should seek to manipulate it.  However, the U.S. economy in the wake of the pandemic should serve as a reminder of the power of simple economics.  No matter how abnormal the starting point, an economy will, if sufficiently neglected by the government, tend towards balanced growth.