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Investing In Africa Is A Different Game. Here Are The Rules
1 hour 19 minutes Posted Apr 1, 2026 at 4:05 pm.
calls with Africa's boldest thinkers: https://convo.vip/
– Intro
– One uncomfortable truth: You have to work with governments
– Where do you see hope in Africa?
– 54 African countries is too many
– Africa's demographic advantage and the future of labor
– Private equity's broken model in Africa
– The currency trap: 300% in Naira, 6% in dollars
– Why PE exits take 14-15 years instead of 10
– The 30% stake problem
– Africa needs 15+ million jobs per year
– Development comes down to two things: productivity and energy
– The average Nigerian consumes the same electricity as a fridge
– Energy is the bottleneck—even for AI in the US
– Education and know-how: The Dangote Refinery example
– Only 2 African utilities are financially viable
– Macroeconomic stability and security
– When did Nigeria diverge? The 1970s oil curse
– Why 54 countries creates inefficiency
– Where young Africans should look for opportunity
– Fintechs will eventually become banks
– AFC's early days and building from scratch
– How AFC achieved an A-minus credit rating
– 95% of troubled investments had governance failures
– John Rawls and why African leaders need a theory of justice
– China's role in African infrastructure
– The diaspora's real value: Know-how, not money
– Why Andrew is on Twitter
– Rapid fire: Favorite Nigerian food, travel, and more
– How AFC's Eurobond was 5-6x oversubscribed
– Warm monetization: Sell Indomie, not champagne
– The infrastructure deal that got away
– Most underrated African leader: Seretse Khama
– Who should sit in this chair next?
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Show notes
Private equity in Africa has returned less than 10% IRR over the last decade. The target? 20%.
Andrew Alli has spent 30 years figuring out why.
He led infrastructure investments at the IFC, then became CEO of Africa Finance Corporation—where he secured an A-minus credit rating and led a Euro bond that was 5-6x oversubscribed.
But this conversation goes far beyond finance.
We unpack why private equity has underperformed across Africa, what's really blocking development, and why the diaspora's most valuable asset isn't money—it's know-how.
Andrew breaks down:
• Why African PE returns less than 10% IRR when firms target 20%
• The 30% ownership trap: why PE firms can't turn companies around
• Dutch Disease: how oil destroyed Nigeria's manufacturing base
• Why 54 African countries is "way too many"
• Energy and productivity: the two dimensions that drive development
• 95% of AFC's troubled investments shared one flaw: governance (not corruption—culture)
• China in Africa: "When Europeans visit, I get a lecture. When the Chinese visit, I get a stadium."
• The diaspora's real value: know-how, not cash
• John Rawls and why justice is the foundation of national unity
This isn't just about investing. It's about understanding the game you're playing.
Essential viewing for founders, investors, and diaspora professionals building in or with Africa.
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WHERE TO FIND ANDREW ALLI
Twitter: https://x.com/afalli
LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andrew-alli-a5029a1
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