The Circuit
The Circuit
Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg
Ep 149: TSMC Q4 25 Earnings, OpenAI Needs more Compute and Monetization
54 minutes Posted Jan 19, 2026 at 6:38 pm.
- Intro & Launching "The Diligent Stack"
- TSMC Analysis: The Bellwether Context
- The Cyclical "Bullwhip" Risk
- TSMC’s Bullish CapEx & Expansion
- The Advanced Packaging (CoWoS) Bottleneck
- Operating Margins & Value Capture
- How AI is Boosting TSMC’s Internal Margins
- The High Cost of Masks (10% of Revenue)
- OpenAI Partners with Cerebras
- OpenAI's Push for Ads & Monetization
- GPU Pricing Report: Stability & Premiums
- Hyperscalers vs. NeoClouds: The Price Gap
- Why We Can't Price Grace Blackwell Yet
- Conclusion
0:00
54:42
Download MP3
Show notes

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the launch of Ben's new publication, "The Diligent Stack." The duo then performs a deep dive into TSMC’s recent earnings, analyzing the risks of semiconductor cyclicality, the massive CapEx requirements for the future, and the specific bottlenecks in advanced packaging (CoWoS). Later, they shift focus to OpenAI’s partnership with Cerebras and the introduction of ads to fund massive compute needs. Finally, they break down the latest data on GPU pricing, highlighting the significant premiums hyperscalers charge compared to NeoClouds and the difficulty of tracking pricing for Nvidia's new Grace Blackwell chips.