Show notes
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.volts.wtf/subscribeThe Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) established substantial tax credits for wind and solar power. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) eliminated those tax credits. How much damage did that do to the overall trajectory of clean energy in the post-Trump world? A new research commentary argues that the damage was less than many had feared and that the road forward for clean energy is less about restoring those credits than about easing the permitting and interconnection constraints inhibiting renewable energy. Today I talk with author Lily Bermel about the modeling her commentary is based on and the somewhat controversial conclusions she draws from it.Chapters:00:00 The IRA, the OBBBA, and the case for optimism03:25 OBBBA - Why Bermel ran the analysis05:50 The headline numbers: 74, 71, 6708:07 Decomposing clean: solar and batteries hold, wind takes the hit12:14 The lag analysis, and the 'glass half full' perspective15:27 2.8 gigatons, and losses you can't get back18:01 The third scenario, and Trump I versus Trump II21:49 What the model leaves out: manufacturing, LPO, loans23:07 Interior's permitting campaign against wind and solar27:22 The demand surge and behind-the-meter gas32:15 Nuclear restarts, geothermal, and clean firm35:31 Booms, busts, and the electrification wave42:22Transmission, interconnection, and the ceiling46:41 Tax credits versus permitting reform51:46 Durability, polarization, and preemptive surrender60:01 Can enough storage make renewables firm?66:48 Grid utilization versus building new grid70:52 Final reflections: 2021, and what Bermel would do with a trifecta
