Show notes
Subscribe to DTC Newsletter - https://dtcnews.link/signupWe surveyed 540+ DTC operators on how they plan and forecast. This episode, we break down the data and see why most brands are stuck reacting. We’re joined by Laura Thompson, co-founder of Three Ships Beauty, one of the few who's figured out how to run a tight, fast, 8-figure brand without drifting into chaos, and Mike Chiasson, Senior Solutions Engineer from Keen Decision Systems, to pressure-test the Three Ships Beauty playbook against the data.Grab your free copy of the report here: https://www.directtoconsumer.co/thereactiveloopreportIn this episode:The biggest gaps in how DTC brands planWhy "revenue is a lagging indicator"The bottom-up forecasting Three Ships usesThe KPI ownership system across the whole teamWhen scenario planning is worth the time, and when it's just noiseIf you’re a DTC operator past $5M who wants to stop reacting and start running a solid plan, this episode is a must listen.Timestamps0:00 Planning vs reacting in ecommerce2:03 Why most brands only plan 1–6 months ahead4:02 Bottom-up forecasting vs top-down forecasting6:06 Scenario planning and external market risks9:02 When media spend actually works harder11:01 The reactive loop hurting DTC brands14:03 Why brands over-invest in bottom funnel15:06 Weekly KPI reviews and forecasting systems18:02 The danger of reacting to noisy data20:04 Leading vs lagging indicators in ecommerce23:02 How talent impacts business performance24:58 Product launch delays and forecasting pivots26:53 Scenario planning for tariffs and supply chain risk31:55 Should brands worry about oil shocks?35:34 The biggest gap between planning and execution38:02 KPI systems that drive accountability42:16 The right way to plan for growth44:02 Why reactive brands fall behindSubscribe to DTC Newsletter - https://dtcnews.link/signupAdvertise on DTC - https://dtcnews.link/advertiseWork with Pilothouse - https://dtcnews.link/pilothouseFollow us on Instagram & Twitter - @dtcnewsletterWatch this interview on YouTube - https://dtcnews.link/video
