Show notes
Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS Timeline: 00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it 06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief 12:00 Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone 18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave? 22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas 30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race 36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do 41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting 46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it 50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol 54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this 1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
