Show notes
Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one. Timeline: 00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp 08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump? 18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved 26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio 30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen 40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate 48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks 54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets 1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced 1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes "18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
