]) The “Cassandras” featured in R.P’s book are experts in their field. They have been for years. He told me about Laurie Garrett, the head of global health for the Council of Foreign Relations. She’s the first person to ever win the Polk, the Pulitzer and the Peabody. “She foresaw the rise of HIV/AIDS when she was a radio reporter in San Francisco,” R.P. said. “She saw these men dying of a disease called ‘gay related immune deficiency,’ ‘GRID,’ or ‘gay cancer.’ They didn’t know what it was. Gay men didn’t think they had a transmissible disease. They thought they were sharing a cancer somehow, but just by looking at them and seeing the Kaposi sarcoma on their face, Laurie Garrett knew this was a contagious illness and started getting the media to pay attention.” This was during the time of Ryan White. He was a young, poor high school student dying of HIV caused by a blood transfusion. He was banned from school. People shot at his house. “Noted politicians called for gay people to be put in camps,” R.P. said. But Laurie could see how the pandemic was unfolding. And she came up with a plan for health care and surveillance networks to prevent the disease’s spread. The issue is that a lot of “Cassandras” are ignored. Because sometimes warnings are wrong… so how do you tell the difference between a “chicken little" and a “Cassandra.” “Cassandras” are data driven. “Everybody in our book who was right was a proven, technical expert on the topic they were speaking about,” R.P. said. “They are questioners by personality.” They ask hard questions and doubt what most believe. They have an off-putting personality (not always, but it’s common). They have a sense of personal responsibility. “When they walk into a restaurant and the fire alarm goes off, they’re the one who says to everybody, ‘Let’s get out of here,” R.P. Said. “These guys think of themselves as sheepdogs. Some people think of themselves as sheep (they probably don’t realize they’re sheep) and then we all know there are wolves out there. Sheepdogs, to some extent, think it’s their job to protect us.” They have high anxiety. “Let’s go back to our fire alarm example. These are the guys who look for the fire exits when they walk in. They’re the people who pull the fire alarm when they smell smoke. And when you think about personalities, a lot of people don’t do that.” Why we continue to let real threats slip by us: I asked R.P. why these people, “the Cassandras,” are ignored. Why aren't we trying harder to prevent terrible things from happening? “It comes down to our human biases,” he said. We pick sides. If we think someone is off-putting, we doubt them. If they confuse us (meaning they’re data goes over our head), we move on. And miss the warning. The same is true for our ideologies and belief systems. We’re quick to deny people who think differently. Madoff’s ponzi scheme is a perfect example. R.P. interviewed Harry Markopolos, a financial fraud investigator. “He knew within 45 seconds of understanding Madoff’s “hedge-fund” that it was a ponzi scheme,” R.P said. But the SEC didn’t listen to Harry’s warning because of his personality. They thought he was obnoxious. Even though he had hard evidence: Madoff claimed to trade 60 billion dollars worth of options. But that many options didn’t even exist in market. The math proves Harry right. Humans fail by emotions. I don’t know if there’s a solution. Maybe we have to unlearn. Maybe we have to judge our judgements. And ask more questions. Curiosity is a new world. And isn’t that what we want after all?